Thursday, January 23, 2003

Here's something of mine from the latest Hillsdale Collegian. I've wanted to comment on the Korean situation for awhile.

Were I a betting man, I would put money on the prediction that American soldiers will be on the ground in Iraq within a month�s time. This not based particularly on hard facts, inside information or anything save my own gut feel and a lot of wishful thinking. I look forward to the time when my daily dose of news no longer includes the latest in an interminable succession of utterly un-unique updates on U.N inspections, Iraqi intransigence and pseudo-enlightened European appeasement.
Much more, I look forward to the day when I hear the Bush administration�s true feelings on North Korea, the day when I understand what plan drives our dealings with our now-nuclear Asian friends. The daily double dose of official diplomatic smoothing of the crisis balanced with the investigative doomsday mutterings of every great news organ in the country is growing increasingly stressful. North Korea, at all accounts but that of the Bush administration, poses a clear and present danger, possessing perhaps the deadliest trio of attributes in the modern world: nuclear weapons, the means of delivery thereof and, apparently, the insane willingness to use them. And we don�t seem to be doing anything about it.
Admittedly the nutty North Koreans picked a particularly bad time to raise a ruckus. We�re in the middle of the whole Iraq thing, with thousands of troops already in the Middle East and many more on the way; diplomatically, we�re struggling to keep our ducks in a row with our allies and the United Nations�we simply don�t have the time, energy or resources to deal with a nuclear-equipped Communist anachronism with a nation-sized Napoleon complex.
I understand and support the game plan that puts North Korea on the back burner until Iraq is dealt with�the whole point of removing Saddam Hussein from power and transplanting Iraq from the �hostile� column to the list of American-friendly nations in the Middle East is to prevent her from ever posing the threat we now face from North Korea. I can even support a certain degree of diplomatic double-talk from the Bush administration to keep North Korea on the sidelines until such a time as we can deal with her. But my support depends on a certain degree of trust that George W. Bush and his advisors are sufficiently well-informed and competent not only to eliminate the threat when the time comes, but to ensure that the situation does not escalate beyond their control while they go about their business in Iraq. And that trust is being seriously tested.
Discerning any real plan from the official statements of the Bush administration has been all but impossible. Its policy has been first and foremost simply not to negotiate with Pyongyang until its nuclear development ends�but it was that very ultimatum that precipitated the current crisis back in October, when Assistant Secretary of State James A. Kelly informed North Korean officials that the United States was aware of its violations of former agreements and demanded that those violations stop. Intelligence insiders had predicted that North Korea would cooperate when confronted. Obviously, they were wrong.
North Korea is making a bid for recognition as a legitimate nuclear power�which Bush of course cannot give without destroying his credibility. Hence the current impasse, in which the administration is anything but consistent.
The only discernible pattern is one of delay: Bush does not want to deal with North Korea until Iraq is out of the way. And, almost as obviously, he wants to keep his options open for the future while maintaining at least some degree of consistency with his own articulated policies for terrorists and the nations that support them. Which is well and good, so long as the crisis doesn�t spiral out of control.
But one is forced to fear that it already has. North Korea effectively holds South Korea hostage, particularly now that it possesses nuclear weapons. A purely military solution to the problem seems out of the question. And the current haphazard policy does not seem well considered to give America the diplomatic upper hand in future negotiations. In all the analyses I have read of the crisis, I have yet to read any suggestions for how to deal with it; journalists are contenting themselves with fear-mongering. Criticism is all too easy, especially when solutions seem so elusive.
Keeping in mind Bush�s past triumphs with the United Nations, the Democratic Senate and the elections themselves, I hesitate to predict failure in this matter�others have underestimated his leadership abilities and political savvy before, to their own humiliation. And even if he does mess up with North Korea, as he is merely human, we must cut him at least some slack, right?
The unfortunate truth, however, is that when the game involves nutty Communist recluses with nukes, the permissible margin of error is very small, while the stakes are higher than ever. Let us all hope and pray that the President is on the ball�because if he messes up here, the consequences may well be greater than any of us can imagine.

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